Anthropic sets IPO price range as traders favor a Nov. 19 debut

Anthropic disclosed proposed terms for its initial public offering on Tuesday, setting a price range of $70 to $78 a share in an amended filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Axios reported the same morning that the company's shares were likely to begin trading next week.

Traders now treat a market debut in mid November as the expected outcome, with Thursday, Nov. 19, the likeliest day. The chance of a first day of trading on that exact date surged within minutes of the Axios report, going from unlikely to slightly better than even, and it has held there since. The filing and the report are the likely reason for the jump, though neither confirms a date: the amendment advances the offering without constituting a listing, and Axios did not name a specific trading day.

The other dates trail well behind. A debut on Friday, Nov. 20, is seen as unlikely, and ones on Wednesday, Nov. 18, or Monday, Nov. 16, are long shots. Traders also see only a slim chance that the month ends without Anthropic going public, and they now consider a listing by the end of next week all but certain.

The swing was sharp. Odds of a Nov. 19 debut had drifted in a narrow, low range from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, rising briefly overnight before slipping back. They then more than doubled around midday Tuesday.

The terms follow a confused few days. Reuters reported on Monday that an Anthropic representative had circulated proposed IPO terms to banks and then retracted them as inaccurate. The new amendment proposes that the company sell approximately 801 million shares, with additional shares sold by existing holders. Axios reported that Anthropic is seeking a valuation of $1.02 trillion.

Anthropic confidentially filed to go public in June and made its registration statement public on Oct. 26. On Nov. 2 it amended the filing with third-quarter figures, including $17 billion in revenue; the Associated Press reported that losses continued.

Traders expect the company to be worth more than the valuation it is seeking once shares change hands. Bets on its market value at the close of its first trading day center on $1.4 trillion, with a range running from under $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion, figures that assume the company lists before 2028. Since the terms came out, traders have grown more confident that the valuation will land between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion, an outcome they already considered likely, and have pulled back bets on a first-day close of $1.8 trillion or more, which was already seen as unlikely.

What comes next is the date itself. Axios expects trading to begin sometime during the week of Nov. 16, but no specific debut day has been confirmed in the reporting or the filing. Only a first public sale of shares on a recognized exchange on Nov. 19, Eastern Time, would count for that date; a debut a day earlier or later would not.