Live odds · Latest move 1 hour ago
What’s moving the odds on elections, the Fed, AI and world events, and the news behind each shift.
NATO–Russia clash
The reason is unclear, and a clash by the end of November is now a long shot; the Black Sea ship sinking did not count.
Updated 3 hours ago · Read the story →
11%▼ 12 pts
NATO-Russia clash by end of November Unlikely
TodayNow
Bets on Machado entering Venezuela this month jumped Friday afternoon but remain unlikely, and the reason is not yet clear.
Ukrainska Pravda reported the Air Force's list of 22 hit locations omitted Kyiv city; traders are certain no qualifying strike hit Kyiv that day.
Axios reports Trump stopped Israel's planned offensive and the White House says no U.S. attack before the vote; why bets fell is unclear.
The reason for the overnight drop isn't clear; JPMorgan's deal sketch and Musk's committees were earlier news, and no merger has been announced.