Anthropic IPO banks weigh higher price that could top $1.5 trillion

Anthropic's IPO bankers are considering a higher offer price that could value the company at $1.5 trillion or more, the Financial Times reported late Tuesday, citing strong investor demand. Traders continue to see the AI company as likely to reach that valuation before the end of the year. Bets on the milestone fell sharply overnight and then won back most of the drop within hours on Wednesday, and the report is the likely reason for the rebound. No reported news directly explains the overnight slide.

The reported increase is neither a final IPO price nor a valuation that would settle the question. It is a sign of where pricing might land, and it followed terms filed earlier Tuesday that pointed lower.

Those terms covered 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. The top of that range implied approximately $1.4 trillion on a fully diluted basis, according to reports, short of the $1.5 trillion mark. The prospectus also described a $26 billion concurrent private placement. Expectations for $1.5 trillion had firmed on Monday, then slid late Tuesday and into the early hours of Wednesday before climbing back through the day.

Across the range of possible outcomes, traders expect Anthropic's valuation to peak at $1.7 trillion this year, with a likely range from under $1.5 trillion to $2.35 trillion. The likeliest single outcome is a peak between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion. Higher targets are a little weaker than they were early in the week: reaching $1.75 trillion is roughly a toss-up, $2 trillion is unlikely, and $2.5 trillion or more is a long shot.

Traders have also grown more confident about timing. Bets that Anthropic will begin trading on Nov. 19 firmed overnight and through Wednesday, and that debut is seen as likely.

The mood has cooled over the past month. Investors had previously discussed a valuation of roughly $2 trillion, but Reuters reported on Oct. 15 that some were considering around $1.5 trillion after a slowdown in revenue growth. A selloff in AI stocks on Nov. 5 led investors to question whether a November listing could go ahead.

Before a listing, the measure that counts is the company's valuation on Nasdaq Private Market. Its public page showed an estimated $88.34 per share as of Oct. 28, though that did not establish a current company valuation. After a listing, the valuation implied by the IPO and the public market value also count.

CNBC has reported that Anthropic plans to price its IPO on Nov. 18 and begin trading the next day. The final offer price, the share count and the first days of regular trading could all matter. Separate bets on the company's market value at the close of its first trading day center on $1.45 trillion.