Hegseth impeachment now expected in 2027 after House shelves articles

The House voted 211–204 on Tuesday evening to send Republican Rep. Thomas Massie's resolution to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to committee rather than vote on its articles, according to the House clerk's record. The vote blocked the immediate effort without approving any article, and traders now expect any impeachment to wait for the next Congress.

An impeachment this year, seen as likely at the start of the week, is now a long shot. One by the end of March is again seen as likely. Taken together, the bets center on early March 2027, with a range running from early January to no impeachment by the end of June. The first three months of next year are the likeliest window. When this story began, traders expected an impeachment before the end of December.

Bets on impeachment by the end of March were shaken along with the year-end ones. They stood at roughly an even chance last Friday, climbed through the weekend and looked likely by Monday. On Tuesday evening they fell sharply to a toss-up. Overnight into Wednesday they recovered most of that drop and have held there, though they remain below Monday's peak. The reason for the rebound is not independently established. The referral left Hegseth in office while the prospect of a Democratic-led House remained.

Bets on an impeachment by the end of June slipped on Tuesday but still make it likely. Traders also sharply cut bets on Hegseth leaving the Trump administration before 2027, an outcome they already considered unlikely.

The split between this year and next reflects the calendar. Republicans control the House until January, when Democrats take control after winning the midterm elections. Incoming Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries had said he would vote for impeachment, and the Associated Press reports that the referral may only delay the push.

Massie introduced his privileged resolution on Nov. 9, after the midterms. His eight articles include the accusation that Hegseth conducted the Iran war without congressional authorization. Hegseth has rejected the accusations as policy disagreements rather than impeachable offenses. The White House urged Republicans to refer the resolution, and Republican Rep. Don Bacon said before the vote that he would oppose impeachment.

Impeachment requires only that a simple majority of the House approve at least one article. A Senate trial or conviction is a separate step. If Hegseth permanently leaves office before the House acts, there would be no impeachment to count.