House blocks impeachment, making Hegseth's exit this year a long shot

The House voted 211-204 on Tuesday to send an impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth back to committee, blocking the immediate effort to impeach him, Axios reports. Traders, who had already been cutting their bets on Hegseth leaving his post by year-end, pulled back further and now see his departure as a long shot.

The vote is the likely reason for the latest drop. It removed one immediate source of pressure on Hegseth, though it did not decide whether he stays in the job. Rep. Thomas Massie, who brought the resolution, was the only Republican to vote against the referral.

Even as they gave up on a quick exit, traders raised their bets that the fight will return. Hegseth being impeached by the end of March went from a toss-up to likely in the hours after the vote. Democrats could revive the effort after taking control of the House in January, Axios reports.

The slide came in stages on Tuesday. Expectations eased in the morning and drifted lower through the afternoon as Hegseth's allies rallied around him, then fell steeply in the evening as the result came in. A day earlier, his departure had been seen as merely unlikely. Traders had also pulled back bets on a broader question, whether Hegseth leaves the Trump administration altogether before 2027, which went from a toss-up to unlikely by early Tuesday.

The day had brought a run of public support. Hegseth rejected the accusations at a Pentagon news conference, and the White House published statements of support from President Trump, Vice President JD Vance and other officials. Trump had defended Hegseth publicly on Monday, after Republican losses in the midterm elections.

Massie introduced his eight articles of impeachment on Monday, alleging misconduct including Hegseth's conduct of the Iran war. An earlier effort in September was interrupted when House Speaker Mike Johnson sent the House into recess.

The odds have swung repeatedly over the past week. They spiked last Wednesday, then fell back. They dropped on Friday and climbed back to a toss-up on Sunday, when Axios reported that Republicans were bracing for defections on impeachment. They fell on Monday after Trump's defense, and much further on Tuesday.

The referral effectively ends this impeachment effort in the current Congress, Axios reports. Hegseth remains in office. Impeachment was never the only route to his leaving: a resignation or a decision by Trump to remove him would count as a departure, and an announcement of either before the end of December would count even if it took effect later.