Hegseth leaving as defense secretary by year-end stays a toss-up before impeachment push

Traders see a toss-up on whether Pete Hegseth leaves his post as Secretary of Defense by Dec. 31, on the eve of the House's return and a planned push by Rep. Thomas Massie to force an impeachment vote.

Expectations have held in that range since climbing in the early hours of Sunday, when Hegseth's departure went from unlikely to roughly even. They have barely moved since. The Pentagon still lists Hegseth as defense secretary.

The path to this point has been bumpy. Bets on a departure rose through late October and early November, after Massie said on Oct. 26 that he would seek a vote in the first week after the House returned. They spiked to likely on Nov. 4, the day after Republicans lost control of Congress in the midterms, when CBS News reported that President Trump had asked advisers whether Hegseth should stay. They fell back within hours after Trump said he had every intention of keeping him, ABC News reported.

On Friday the odds dropped again after Trump named Stephen Miller to replace White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, who had reportedly raised concerns about Hegseth. The Washington Post reported the change. It looked like a possible easing of pressure on the defense secretary, and the odds were steady on Saturday.

The impeachment effort began on Sept. 15, when Massie introduced eight articles of impeachment alleging abuses of authority and violations of war-powers limits, including allegations tied to the Iran war. The House recessed early, and no vote took place. Hegseth's spokesman has said the department followed the law.

Axios reports that House Republican leaders are bracing for enough GOP defections to impeach Hegseth. The report does not establish when that assessment became public.

What comes next is the House calendar. Massie told ABC News he intends to introduce his resolution on Monday or Tuesday. If it qualifies as privileged, House leaders would have up to two legislative days to schedule action, which could include a motion to table it.

An impeachment vote alone would not remove Hegseth from office. Conviction in the Senate would require a two-thirds vote. The bets would pay off on an announcement of resignation or removal by Dec. 31, even if the departure took effect later.