Planned Trump-Qatar talks make the U.S. ending its Iran blockade this year a toss-up

Traders now see it as a toss-up that the U.S. government officially announces an end to its blockade of Iranian ports by the end of the year. Bets jumped sharply on Monday, after the White House scheduled President Trump to meet Qatar's prime minister, and Axios reported the two would discuss a proposed two-day sequence toward a broader deal with Iran.

The proposal includes lifting the U.S. blockade, according to Axios. It is not an announcement that the blockade has ended or been suspended. Only an official, unambiguous U.S. statement of a present or definitive end or suspension would count, and a conditional promise or an agreement in principle would not.

The move reverses a weekend slide. Expectations had hovered near a toss-up through late October and early November, after rising on October 28. They then slipped on Saturday and Sunday to the point where an announcement looked unlikely, before the jump on Monday morning.

Across the different deadlines, traders still lean toward a later announcement rather than an imminent one. An announcement by mid-November is a long shot, and one by the end of November is unlikely. An announcement by the end of March 2027 is likely. Traders' central expectation for the timing is now mid January 2027, earlier than early February 2027 when this story began. The single likeliest result remains that no announcement comes by March 31, 2027.

The U.S. has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports as part of its conflict with Iran. Reuters reported on September 24 that the two sides were discussing a phased arrangement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the blockade, with disagreement over when to address Iran's nuclear program. On October 28, Reuters reported that Qatar had presented a draft, which an Iranian official called unacceptable. Iranian negotiators left Doha on November 1 while a draft continued to circulate. An official told Reuters the departure did not mean talks had broken down.

Caution remains. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on November 8 that talks were not close to a breakthrough, and officials cited by Reuters said an agreement was not imminent. U.S. Central Command said it disabled a commercial vessel on November 7 after it tried to breach the blockade.

Trump's meeting with Qatar's prime minister is set for midday Monday, with the press kept out. It could produce more detail on the proposed deal. Whether any of it leads to a formal U.S. announcement before the end of the year is the question traders are weighing.