Traders still see Hegseth leaving as defense secretary this month as unlikely

Traders still consider it unlikely that Pete Hegseth will stop being U.S. Secretary of Defense this month, even after a sharp rise in bets on his departure over the past day.

The reason for the latest jump is not yet clear. Expectations had been drifting lower. Bets slid on Thursday and fell further on Friday, then steadied on Saturday. They began climbing late Saturday night and kept rising through Sunday, with the steepest gain coming in the afternoon.

The backdrop is pressure on Hegseth after Republicans lost control of Congress in the November 3 midterms. CBS News reported that President Trump had asked advisers whether Hegseth should stay, though Trump had not decided to replace him. On Thursday, Trump told ABC News he had every intention of keeping Hegseth. The White House also posted a video on Friday praising Hegseth's work. That public defense provides context for the earlier decline, though its precise effect on trading is not established.

On Sunday, Axios reported that House Republican leaders were preparing for enough GOP defections to impeach Hegseth this week. The report bears on his job security, but its publication time was not pinned down closely enough to say it caused the jump. Pressure on Hegseth has also persisted over the Iran war.

No resignation or removal announcement has been found. An announcement by the end of November that Hegseth is resigning or being removed would count as his leaving, even if his departure took effect later.

Several events could shape expectations soon. CBS says its full interview with Trump airs Sunday evening. An excerpt already showed him expressing confidence in Hegseth while anticipating possible Cabinet changes. Rep. Thomas Massie told ABC he intends to introduce his impeachment resolution on Monday or Tuesday.

Impeachment by the House alone would not remove Hegseth. Senate conviction would also be required, so a House vote would not by itself end his tenure.