Report of GOP defections toward impeaching Hegseth lifts bets he leaves by year-end

Bets that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration before 2027 rose to a toss-up on Sunday, after Axios reported that House Republican leaders are bracing for enough defections in their own party to impeach him. The jump over the past day was a clear one, from a standing that had been unlikely.

Axios reported on November 8 that leaders expect the votes to be there when Rep. Thomas Massie forces a floor vote. The report adds to pressure on Hegseth, though impeachment alone would not remove him from office. Only an announced resignation or removal before the end of December 31 would count as leaving, even if it took effect later.

The odds have swung widely in recent weeks. They were unlikely in late October, climbed on October 26 and 27 as Massie said he would force a vote, and kept rising into the first days of November. They peaked on November 4, when they briefly spiked well above even, then eased. They slid on November 6 and stayed low on November 7 before Sunday's rise.

Massie introduced impeachment allegations against Hegseth in September, including that he unlawfully continued the Iran war. The House recessed without voting. On October 26, Massie said he planned to force a vote during the week of November 9.

The pressure has built since then. On November 1, The Atlantic reported that Trump had questioned allies about Hegseth's performance. After Republican midterm losses, Axios reported that some administration officials favored ousting him. Trump said on November 5 that he intended to keep Hegseth. On November 6, Trump replaced chief of staff Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller, a post-election shakeup that did not change Hegseth's role.

Other cabinet-level figures look less exposed. Traders see Kristi Noem and Kash Patel as unlikely to leave before 2027, and Marco Rubio, Howard Lutnick and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also as unlikely. Scott Bessent and Lee Zeldin are long shots.

The House is scheduled to return on November 9, and Massie has said he intends to force a vote that week. The chamber could vote on impeachment or on a motion to table it. Removal would require a two-thirds vote in the Senate to convict, a high bar. Whether Trump, who has said he intends to keep Hegseth, changes course is the open question.