House blocks Hegseth impeachment as he is expected to stay this month

The House on Tuesday turned aside a resolution to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the Associated Press reports, halting the immediate effort by Republican Rep. Thomas Massie to force him from office. Traders continue to expect Hegseth to remain defense secretary through November, with a departure this month seen as unlikely and edging toward a long shot.

The vote ends this impeachment push but does not settle whether Hegseth keeps his job for the rest of the month. A resignation or removal announced before the end of November would count as a departure even if it took effect later.

Bets on his leaving had already fallen before the House acted. Earlier on Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance publicly defended Hegseth, calling the allegations that he committed impeachable crimes absurd, Axios reported. Those remarks were the likely reason for a drop in departure bets on Tuesday afternoon, about an hour after Axios published them. They followed President Donald Trump's statement that he intended to keep Hegseth, and Hegseth's own denial of wrongdoing.

The decline has come in steps. Expectations of a departure jumped on Sunday, then gave back most of that ground on Monday, with a sharp slide late in the day. They held steady overnight, eased during Tuesday and fell again in the afternoon after Vance spoke. Over the past several days the chance of a November exit has dropped substantially, though it was seen as unlikely throughout.

Hegseth's position came under scrutiny after Republicans' midterm losses. Axios reported on Nov. 5 that he was on thin ice with some Trump advisers, and on Sunday that several House Republicans could support impeachment. On Monday, Massie introduced eight articles alleging unlawful conduct in military operations and other abuses.

The threat from Congress may return. A new Democratic majority could pursue impeachment in January, the AP reports. Even then, impeachment by the House alone would not remove Hegseth, since conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds vote.

For now, with the president and vice president both backing him in public and the House resolution set aside, traders expect Hegseth to stay at the Pentagon through the month.