Eizenkot favored to be Israel's next premier as coalition talks begin

Gadi Eizenkot remains the favorite to become Israel's next prime minister as he begins trying to build a governing coalition, with Benjamin Netanyahu a distant and unlikely second. Traders see it as essentially a two-man contest: Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett are both long shots.

President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Eizenkot with forming a government on Sunday, three days ahead of the Wednesday deadline for naming a candidate, according to the president's office. The mandate is a first chance to assemble a coalition, and it stops short of an appointment or swearing-in as prime minister.

Bets on Eizenkot have eased somewhat since the weekend. They peaked around the time the mandate was handed over, slipped on Sunday and Monday, and have held steady since, leaving him likely to take office but far from assured. Netanyahu's chances edged up over the same stretch.

The path here was volatile. Eizenkot was favored going into the Oct. 27 election, then his chances collapsed as the count showed Netanyahu's Likud ahead. Likud finished with 27 seats to 21 for Eizenkot's Yashar party, according to the Knesset's final results, and for several days Netanyahu was seen as the likelier premier. Eizenkot's odds recovered through early November, first on reports that Arab-led parties would recommend him and then when opposition leaders agreed to back him. On Thursday, Herzog said factions representing 67 lawmakers had recommended Eizenkot, against 46 for Netanyahu.

Those recommendations are not a coalition. The parties that backed Eizenkot have significant disagreements among themselves, and he must turn their support into a government that can win a confidence vote in the Knesset.

Eizenkot has an initial 28 days to form a government from the day he received the mandate, with a possible two-week extension. If he fails, another candidate could be given an opportunity, and another election remains possible. The Knesset scheduled its inaugural sitting for Tuesday.

The question traders are weighing is who is next sworn in as prime minister after the election, not counting interim or caretaker leaders, and the remaining doubt reflects the chance that coalition talks fall apart.