Trump calls Iran war 'effectively over' as bets on a two-week pause rise

President Trump said Monday that the war with Iran was militarily "effectively over" and that renewed attacks were unlikely, the Associated Press and Axios reported. He spoke after meeting Qatar's prime minister, whose country has mediated indirect talks, and he kept open the option of striking again.

The remarks are the likely reason traders moved up their expectations for a lasting pause in U.S. attacks. Taken together, their bets now point to a 14-day stretch without U.S. strikes on Iran beginning by mid November, compared with late November when this story began. The range they allow for is wide, running from before November 8 to not by December 31. The single likeliest window for the pause to begin is between November 8 and November 15.

A pause that begins by November 22 has gone from an even bet to slightly better than even over the past day. The odds dipped early Monday, climbed through the day, jumped Monday evening, gave back most of that gain overnight and then rose again early Tuesday, where they have held. A pause that begins by the end of November is now seen as likely, and one that begins by the end of the year remains likely. A pause starting by this weekend is still close to an even bet.

Trump's comments pointed toward a halt in U.S. attacks but did not show that the required two weeks had passed. The count covers only air strikes and missile or drone strikes by the United States that hit Iranian territory. A formal agreement is not needed, and any such strike would restart the count.

The war began in February. A June ceasefire later deteriorated, and U.S. officials reported limited strikes on Iranian targets in early November. Trump confirmed another limited strike on Iranian air defenses on November 6, though the reports do not make clear the timing and weapons involved, details that determine when the two-week count started.

Before Monday's meeting, Iran sought an end to the U.S. blockade and other concessions, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the talks had not been productive. Trump's later remarks suggested he prefers keeping the blockade to a new military escalation for now.

Separately, traders see the ceasefire between Israel and Iran as all but certain to hold through November 22.

What comes next depends on whether the United States refrains from striking. Trump says the blockade will continue, and Iran continues to demand its removal. The date of the most recent qualifying strike remains important to verify.