A two-week halt in U.S. strikes on Iran this month is now a toss-up

Traders are no longer confident that the United States will go two full weeks without striking Iran this month. Expectations of a 14-day pause beginning by mid-November slipped Thursday from an even bet to somewhat less than even, and the reason is not yet clear.

The doubt spread across later dates too. A pause beginning by Nov. 22 or by the end of November had been seen as likely and is now closer to a coin flip. A pause beginning by the end of December is still considered likely, though a little less so than before. One that began by Nov. 8 is seen as unlikely.

Thursday's drop undid most of a steady climb. Expectations of a mid-November pause had risen each day from Sunday through Wednesday, when they tipped slightly past even. They held there into Thursday before falling quickly amid unusually heavy trading, back to about where they stood early in the week.

That earlier climb followed President Donald Trump's remarks on Nov. 9, after a meeting with Qatar's prime minister, that the war with Iran was militarily "effectively over" and that new attacks were unlikely, though he kept the option to strike, according to the Associated Press. Three days before that, Trump had said the U.S. carried out limited strikes on an Iranian air-defense system.

On Thursday, Trump redirected Vice President JD Vance away from his Iran diplomacy and said the U.S. did not need an agreement, Axios reported. Vance had recently been involved in efforts toward a new ceasefire and nuclear talks, according to Axios. That report came out hours before the drop, and nothing establishes it as the trigger.

No deal is needed for the pause to count. It requires 14 straight days without a U.S. air or missile strike that hits Iran's land territory or internal waters, with the first day falling by Nov. 15, Iran time. Action at sea, intercepted munitions and threats that are not carried out do not break the streak. Any qualifying strike would restart the count.

Available reports do not establish the date of the most recent qualifying strike with enough certainty to say how far along any current quiet period is. Even a completed two-week stretch would be confirmed only after three more days.

Other expectations about the conflict were steady. Traders see the Israel-Iran ceasefire as all but certain to hold through mid-November and consider a U.S. announcement ending its blockade of Iran by then a long shot.