Iran rejects Vance meeting, leaving senior U.S. talks unlikely this year

Iran has rejected reports of a meeting in Doha between its security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, and Vice President JD Vance, and traders now see a senior U.S.-Iran meeting before the end of the year as unlikely, though far from ruled out.

Iran's state-run Press TV reported Monday that a senior Iranian security official dismissed the reports, saying Washington must first take practical steps on Iran's seven conditions. Rezaei then described reports of negotiations as invented, according to Press TV and Anadolu Agency. The denials are the likely reason expectations of a meeting fell back.

The retreat followed a volatile day. On Monday, as President Donald Trump met Qatar's prime minister to discuss Iran, bets on a senior meeting jumped to roughly even. They gave up those gains by Monday evening as the Iranian denials circulated, and have held near that lower level through Tuesday. That leaves the odds about where they were on Sunday, when they had already slipped from the near even footing they held for most of the past two weeks. A meeting before the end of November is seen as less likely still, and those odds have fallen further over the past few days.

Hopes for talks rose in late October, when Vance wrote to Rezaei seeking to restart negotiations. By Nov. 3, Qatar said both sides were reviewing mediators' proposals but cautioned there was no breakthrough. Axios reported on Nov. 6 that Vance and mediators were discussing a possible technical meeting, which did not take place. Reuters reported Monday that senior U.S. and Gulf officials doubted a deal was imminent.

After his meeting with Qatar's prime minister, Trump said renewed major strikes were unlikely and called the war militarily "effectively over," the Associated Press reported. Qatar said Tuesday that its mediation had made progress, with both sides giving positive responses, even as Iranian officials denied any planned senior meeting.

Mediation alone would not settle the question. What counts is a meeting for diplomacy or negotiation with a senior representative from each country taking part, either face to face or through authorized intermediaries with both delegations in the same venue or city on the same day. Remote exchanges and Trump's talks with Qatar do not qualify.

Qatar says its efforts continue, but no date has been set for a senior U.S.-Iran meeting. Iran's insistence that Washington act on its seven conditions before any negotiation is the main obstacle. A confirmed meeting between senior officials, or an indirect session with both sides in the same city, would change the picture.