Traders suddenly see Lutnick's job in doubt before year-end

Traders now see Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaving the Trump administration by year-end as close to a toss-up, after a sudden burst of betting on Thursday pushed his departure from unlikely to roughly even. The reason for the jump is not yet clear.

The move runs against the most recent public word from the White House. Axios reported Thursday that a White House official said President Donald Trump retains complete confidence in Lutnick. That statement came before the latest surge and points against a departure, so it does not explain why bets on his leaving rose.

Expectations have climbed in steps this week. A departure was seen as unlikely through early November, with odds drifting up from Monday. They rose sharply late Wednesday, the day Axios reported that Lutnick had repeatedly delayed a Trump-backed crackdown on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia chips to China. They then eased through Thursday morning before surging within minutes in the afternoon to their highest level in at least two weeks.

Lutnick was confirmed as commerce secretary in February 2025. In February this year he faced bipartisan calls to resign over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, but the White House stood by him. After Republicans lost both chambers of Congress in the November midterms, Trump said he expected to make a few personnel changes, and he then named Stephen Miller to replace Susie Wiles as chief of staff. Neither step established that Lutnick would go.

The rise also sets Lutnick apart from other senior officials. Traders have recently grown less convinced that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will leave this year, moving his departure from a toss-up to unlikely, and bets on FBI Director Kash Patel going have also faded. Lutnick is now seen as far more likely to leave by year-end than either of them, or than Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whose exits remain long shots.

The next marker is Nov. 24, the date by which Sen. Michael Bennet has asked Lutnick and other officials to answer questions about the Megaspeed investigation and potential export restrictions. Further administration decisions or congressional scrutiny could affect his position. An announcement before the end of December that he will leave would count as a departure even if it takes effect later; scrutiny or a request for answers alone would not.