Odds on Republican Murphy rebound, leaving North Carolina's 3rd District a toss-up

Traders again see North Carolina's 3rd District House race as a toss-up, after bets on Republican Rep. Greg Murphy recovered from unlikely to even over about two hours on Wednesday. The reason for the rebound is not yet clear. No reported news explains it, and the story will be updated if a cause emerges.

The move undoes most of a slide that took Murphy's chances down after the polls closed Tuesday. That slide left a win for Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. looking likely for much of the early morning. Smith's odds have now eased back to a toss-up. Expectations in this race have reversed repeatedly overnight. Murphy was a clear favorite at one point, then an underdog, and Smith briefly looked all but certain to win.

The vote count gives little reason for confidence either way. NSJ reports that Murphy leads by 233 votes, with 49.42% to Smith's 49.33%. The Associated Press has not called the race, and no recount had been requested as of election night.

The seat was expected to lean Republican before the vote. Ballotpedia lists the district's Cook Partisan Voter Index as R+10, and a forecaster moved the race into a more competitive category before election day, Carolina Journal reported. Murphy has been in Congress since 2019. Smith served in the state House from 2019 to 2023.

With the margin this small, a recount is possible. NSJ reports that North Carolina's process begins with a full machine recount of all ballots if the margin is close enough, with a further step if that does not change the result.

The outcome will turn on the remaining counted ballots and on any AP call or recount result. Given how often expectations have flipped since Tuesday night, they could move sharply again as more votes are tallied.