Bets on the House impeaching Hegseth by year-end jump to a toss-up

Traders now see a toss-up on whether the House of Representatives impeaches Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth by the end of 2026, after bets that it will rose sharply on Friday. Expectations had been that it was unlikely.

The reason for the jump is unclear. No development in the available reporting explains the timing of the move, and the story will be updated if a cause emerges.

The odds moved in one day. They slipped to their lowest point around midday Friday, then climbed through the afternoon and evening to the toss-up range, a gain of roughly a dozen points from where they stood when tracking began. Bets on impeachment by the end of March 2027 barely changed and also sit at a toss-up. Traders' central expectation for when the House acts is early March 2027.

Some background is relevant, though it is not established as the cause. On September 15, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie presented eight proposed articles of impeachment against Hegseth, including allegations that he conducted the Iran war without congressional authorization. The House adjourned early the next day without voting. The Pentagon has denied wrongdoing.

Democrats won control of the next House in the November 3 midterms, but the current Republican-controlled House stays in office through the lame-duck session. CNN reported Thursday that Massie planned to trigger a vote next week and that multiple Republican sources expected impeachment to pass.

The next test comes soon. The House is scheduled to return November 9, and Massie has said he intends to pursue impeachment in the first week back unless Hegseth resigns. A procedural vote would not by itself count. The outcome requires the House to approve at least one article of impeachment by a simple majority. A Senate trial or removal is not needed.

There is one way the question could end abruptly. If Hegseth permanently leaves office before the House votes, the bet that he is impeached would fail immediately.