Colom leads Hyde-Smith by 2,010 votes in Mississippi's Senate race, which is uncalled

Democrat Scott Colom's lead over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi's Senate race grew to 2,010 votes on Friday as counties kept counting, according to the Associated Press tally reported by the Mississippi Free Press. The paper also found that Hyde-Smith gained relatively few votes from affidavit ballots counted in several North Mississippi counties, including some friendly to her. That makes it harder for her to erase the deficit. The race has not been called.

Traders now treat a Colom victory as certain, though nothing has formally resolved. The shift was abrupt. Through Tuesday, a Republican win looked likely, and Colom's chances rose only to unlikely. Early Wednesday, after NBC News and WLOX reported Colom ahead by 28 votes, bets swung hard. Expectations went from a Hyde-Smith win to a Colom win within hours, and a Colom win became likely. Since then his odds have kept climbing, and they firmed again on Friday. Traders also pulled back on the Republican Party ending with exactly 45 Senate seats, which fell from likely to a toss-up early Wednesday.

The count has moved Colom's way since election night. The AP had him ahead by 1,138 votes on Wednesday, and Decision Desk HQ's separate tally showed him up by 1,964 votes Thursday afternoon. The tallies differ, and none is official.

The race is also turning into a legal dispute. On Thursday, Hyde-Smith's lawyers asked all 82 counties to separate and preserve affidavit ballots. Colom's lawyer replied that segregating accepted ballots would violate election law and threaten ballot secrecy.

Hyde-Smith entered the election as the incumbent in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1982. Before Election Day the Cook Political Report rated the race likely Republican, and President Donald Trump campaigned for her in Mississippi on Oct. 26.

Ballots are still outstanding. Secretary of State Michael Watson said about 3,600 mailed absentee ballots had not been returned. Nov. 10 is the deadline for timely postmarked absentee ballots to arrive and for certain affidavit voters to present identification. Counties must certify results by Nov. 13, and Harrison County plans a public ballot-review meeting on Nov. 10.

The race will be settled when the AP, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification decides it. The AP says Mississippi has no automatic recount, though a challenger can ask a court to order one.