AP calls Texas' 23rd District for Democrat Katy Padilla Stout

The Associated Press called Texas' 23rd Congressional District early Wednesday for Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, declaring her the winner over Republican Brandon Herrera. The call followed an election-night count that had put Stout ahead. A Republican victory in the district is no longer expected.

A Texas secretary of state count posted late Tuesday night showed Stout with 105,188 votes, or 52.8%, to Herrera's 86,724, or 43.6%. That count was incomplete and uncertified, and official results remain subject to certification.

Bets on a Republican win had been sliding through the night. Early Wednesday, as returns put Stout in front, a Republican victory slipped from unlikely to a long shot. After the AP call, it fell to close to nothing, and a Stout win became the overwhelming expectation. Bets that Republicans end up with fewer than 190 House seats in the midterms also firmed to all but certain over the same hours.

The seat was open. Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales dropped his reelection bid in March and resigned in April, leaving Herrera, Stout and independent Ben Mendoza in the field, Axios reported. Before the election, the Washington Post described the redrawn district as leaning Republican, which makes Stout's win a notable result for Democrats. Herrera had edged Gonzales in the March 3 Republican primary, while Stout won the Democratic primary with 52.1%.

The question of which party wins the district is judged by the party of the candidate who prevails in the Nov. 3 election. That judgment comes once all 2026 House elections have been conclusively called, so formal resolution may wait on races elsewhere in the country.

Counting and reporting of House races continue nationwide. The outcome follows a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus proves ambiguous, official Federal Election Commission results will decide it. The district's result is effectively settled by the AP call, but certification of the vote is still to come.