McGuire declares victory over Perriello in Virginia's 5th District, Cardinal News reports

Republican Rep. John McGuire declared victory over Democrat Tom Perriello in Virginia's 5th District, Cardinal News reported, though the Associated Press had not called the race late Tuesday.

Poliwave, which uses AP data, showed McGuire ahead by 5,626 votes with 97.5% of precincts reporting. The count is unofficial and incomplete, and a candidate's declaration of victory does not by itself settle who won the seat.

The count moved a lot on election night. Perriello led early in the evening, and the two were nearly tied shortly afterward. McGuire then led by only 518 votes later that night before his advantage widened to its current size.

Betting on a Democratic win followed that course. Hopes for Perriello rose through the night, reaching the point where the outcome looked unlikely but within reach, then fell back within hours as McGuire's lead grew. By early Wednesday a Democratic win was a long shot, down from unlikely at the start of the night. The sources provided do not explain what drove each swing in the betting. The vote count is the likely reason for the final move.

McGuire won the seat in 2024 with 57.3% of the vote. In August, he and Perriello, who represented the district from 2009 to 2011, won their respective primaries. The two met in the November 3 midterm election, which decides which party holds the seat.

The seat will go to the Democratic Party only if Perriello wins it. For that to happen, he would need the remaining votes to erase a lead of several thousand.

What comes next depends on the remaining votes and on credible race calls. Those will determine whether McGuire holds the seat. The result will count as final once credible reporting confirms it. If reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide.