Election-night leads leave traders certain Democrats will control the Senate

ABC News now projects that Democrat Annie Andrews will win South Carolina's Senate seat, which Republicans have held. The network's tracker shows two Democratic Senate pickups overall: Andrews in South Carolina and Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Traders already treat Democratic control of the Senate as certain, and they treat Republican control as ruled out.

The projection is the latest sign of a strong night for Democrats, but it does not by itself deliver a majority. No outside source has reported that Democrats have clinched control. Traders also ruled out a Democratic win in the Texas Senate race by three points or less. That is consistent with partial counts that showed Democrat James Talarico well ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, 58% to 40%, in ABC's tracker. Those counts are not final.

The odds traveled quickly. Through late October, Democrats were favored but far from certain, and expectations drifted up and down within a narrow range. Bets on a Democratic majority strengthened on Monday, then surged on Tuesday evening as returns came in. By late Tuesday night and into Wednesday, traders had stopped doubting the outcome. The South Carolina projection is a development in the reporting, not an explanation for that earlier move.

Republicans entered the election with a 53-47 Senate advantage, counting two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats for a majority. Republican Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie, so Democrats effectively need 51 seats for control. WUNC reported that Cooper's polling lead widened during the campaign and that national Republican groups redirected advertising money to other battlegrounds.

As counting continues, Democratic candidates also lead in Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio and Maine, though those leads are provisional. Vote counting and race calls in the remaining competitive states will determine whether Democrats reach a majority. Ranked-choice counting in Maine and Alaska can delay results.

The question also counts later runoffs, and an unclear caucus choice by an independent senator could leave the matter open until Jan. 4. For now, traders are certain the remaining counts will confirm a Democratic majority.