Traders expect a Talarico Texas Senate win by 12 points or more, though counts show less

Traders consider it likely that Democrat James Talarico beats Republican Ken Paxton in Texas' Senate election by 12 points or more, even though the unofficial count so far shows a narrower lead. Expectations for the wider margin have strengthened again since the last update, and the reason for the latest rise is not clear.

The path has been jagged. A win by 12 points or more began the night as unlikely and climbed during early counting until it was likely. Within about a minute it then collapsed back to unlikely, and no reported news explained the drop. Through the early hours of Wednesday it rebounded in stages, reaching a toss-up, then likely, and it has since climbed higher still. The overnight plunge has been completely reversed.

The neighboring outcome has gone the other way. A Talarico win by 9 to 12 points, which traders called likely for much of the night, is now unlikely. Taken together, the bets lean toward a wider margin than the unofficial counts show.

Those counts are incomplete. Decision Desk HQ showed Talarico ahead by 11.54 points early Wednesday. Its later count, with more than 95% of the vote reported, showed a 10.17-point lead. Its most recent page shows a 10.32-point margin, with Talarico at 54.22% and Paxton at 43.90%. Those figures are below the 12-point mark. The sources provided do not explain why traders have moved toward a larger margin, and the remaining votes could still change the final number. The earlier Decision Desk HQ lead of 11.54 points is the likely reason bets on the 9-to-12-point range rose overnight, but it does not explain the latest move.

The winner is no longer in question. The Associated Press has called the race for Talarico, and Paxton has conceded, but neither settles the margin.

The race drew national attention. Talarico won the Democratic nomination over Jasmine Crockett, while Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff. A final New York Times/Siena poll showed Talarico ahead 50% to 43%.

The remaining votes and the official statewide count will determine the final margin. A margin of exactly 12 points would count toward the 12-or-more outcome, and a recount would keep the question open until the result is official.