Associated Press calls Montana's Senate race for Republican Kurt Alme

The Associated Press called Montana's U.S. Senate race for Republican Kurt Alme early Wednesday, declaring him the winner over independent Seth Bodnar. The call came after MTN News reported that Bodnar had conceded.

The AP call follows a concession report. MTN News said Alme led 47% to 39% with 31% of precincts reporting when it published. Its publication time was not visible, so it is unclear how the concession lines up with the last count update. Earlier returns had shown Alme ahead without a call. A tally posted by ElectionTracker.live late Tuesday had Alme at 31,843 votes, or 50.0%, and Bodnar at 23,190, or 36.4%, with 12.6% of reporting units counted. Fox News, using AP figures, showed Alme at 50.59% and Bodnar at 35.76% with 15.42% of the vote in.

Fox News and NBC have not been independently confirmed as calling the race. A result is treated as settled for this question once the AP, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification decides it. Montana's official results page did not yet show a certified general-election result.

The seat is open because Sen. Steve Daines announced on March 4 that he would not seek reelection, shortly before the filing deadline, and backed Alme, a former U.S. attorney. President Donald Trump also endorsed Alme. Bodnar, a former University of Montana president, ran as an independent. Democrat Alani Bankhead stayed on the ballot despite pressure from some Democrats to step aside for Bodnar. The Washington Post reported that the two were expected to split much of the centrist and liberal vote.

Polling before the vote was mixed. A Montana Free Press–Rutgers survey in late August and early September had Alme at 38%, Bodnar at 30% and Bankhead at 16%. An October survey by Concord Public Opinion Partners had Bodnar at 37%, Alme at 35% and Bankhead at 13%.

Bets on a Republican win were already very high before election day and rose further as the returns came in. A brief surge for Bodnar in the hours after polls closed faded as early returns showed Alme ahead.

Next come the remaining count and any matching calls from Fox News and NBC. Official canvassing will follow, and certification would settle the result if the outlets do not agree.