Peltola retakes a narrow lead in Alaska's Senate count, and traders still favor her

Democrat Mary Peltola has moved back ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska's U.S. Senate race, according to GovGalaxy. A state results file it reported on early Wednesday morning showed Peltola leading by 626 first-choice votes, 102,701 to 102,075, with 417 of 443 precincts counted. The race has not been called.

The update reverses the previous count. Decision Desk HQ had put Sullivan ahead 99,557 to 97,407 with 67% of the estimated vote reported. Early returns had shown Peltola leading roughly 54% to 43% before the race narrowed to a virtual tie.

Traders still see Peltola as the likely winner, with Sullivan unlikely to prevail. Bets on her have swung widely in recent hours. They held at a level that made her the likely winner through late October. They climbed Tuesday evening and peaked in the early hours of Wednesday, when she looked all but certain. They then gave back much of that gain through the morning and now sit close to where they stood before Election Day. Bets on Sullivan moved the other way, falling to a long shot before rebounding to unlikely.

The reason for the latest drop is not yet clear, and it is not established that any single count drove it. The earlier surge has a likely explanation that concerned another state: the Associated Press called North Carolina's Republican-held Senate seat for Democrat Roy Cooper on Tuesday night, a favorable national sign for Democrats while Alaska was still voting. That was not an Alaska result and does not account for the reversal. Traders also see Republicans holding 47 or fewer Senate seats after the midterms as all but certain, though that has not been settled.

Peltola, a former U.S. representative, is challenging Sullivan, a two-term incumbent. The ballot also includes Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher whose candidacy drew allegations of voter confusion. Peltola and the second Sullivan have denied involvement in a recruitment scheme. A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to delay certification under certain circumstances, and the department has appealed.

Counting continues. If neither candidate wins more than half of first-choice votes, ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, the deadline for eligible overseas ballots, the Associated Press says. The race is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. Otherwise, official certification decides.