Democrat Troy Jackson wins Maine's Senate race over Susan Collins, the AP reports

Democrat Troy Jackson has won Maine's Senate race over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the Associated Press reported early Wednesday. The AP called the contest for Jackson after Collins conceded, according to the AP and Maine Public. Axios had earlier reported the concession.

The call came after a night of shifting tallies. Early returns favored Jackson, and one tracker, Poliwave, briefly showed Collins ahead. Fox News's AP-sourced count then put Jackson back in front and showed his lead growing. With 60.97% of the vote reporting, it had Jackson ahead 51.82% to 48.11%.

The AP's call does not by itself settle how the contest is officially recorded. The race counts as decided when the AP, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. If they do not, the result rests on official certification. Matching calls from Fox News and NBC had not been verified at the time of this report.

Bets had run ahead of the count. Through Monday and Tuesday, Jackson was seen as the likely winner, and his chances edged up as polls closed. They rose sharply in the early hours of Wednesday, passing from likely to all but certain and then to certainty. A Collins win had become a long shot well before the AP called the race. The Maine results also moved bets elsewhere: traders raised their view of Democrats winning the Iowa Senate race from a toss-up to likely.

Collins, first elected in 1996, was seeking a sixth term. Jackson, a former president of the Maine Senate, became the Democratic nominee in July after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew. An October 22-25 Marist poll of likely voters had Jackson ahead 49% to 47%.

What comes next is confirmation. Fox News and NBC are expected to issue their own calls as the rest of the vote is counted. If all three outlets agree, the race is settled on those calls. If they do not, official certification will decide the winner.