Traders certain Republicans will hold 47 or fewer Senate seats

Traders now treat it as certain that Republicans will hold 47 or fewer Senate seats in the next Congress, though the outcome has not formally resolved and the count is not final. Bets on that result were a toss-up through most of October and climbed through the final weekend and Election Day. They surged late Tuesday and into early Wednesday as results came in.

The likely reason is a run of Democratic wins in Republican-held seats. On Tuesday, the Associated Press called North Carolina's Senate seat for Democrat Roy Cooper, flipping a seat Republicans held. The AP also called the Texas Senate race for Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton. Axios reported Democratic wins in Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina and Iowa. None of these calls settles the Republican total on its own, but together they point to a large loss.

The odds moved in steps. They were near a toss-up through most of October, then rose on Friday, Oct. 30, to within reach. They rose again on Monday and Tuesday and jumped late Tuesday night. By early Wednesday traders treated 47 or fewer as certain. Bets on Republicans finishing with exactly 48, 49 or 50 seats had each been ruled out by then.

Republicans entered the election with a 53-47 Senate advantage, counting independents with the parties they caucus with. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats for control, but reaching 47 Republican seats requires a net Republican loss of six. Decision Desk HQ has projected Democratic control of the Senate. Its tally, when checked, showed 51 Democratic and 40 Republican seats, with nine not yet allocated. Its projected final count of 56-44 is a projection, not a result. CBS News exit polling put President Trump's approval at 38%.

What comes next is more counting and certification. Officials will keep tallying outstanding contests, including any qualifying runoffs. The final Republican total also depends on how vacancies are counted and on whether independents announce which party they will caucus with, a question that can stay open until Jan. 4.