Peltola's narrow Alaska lead makes 44 Republican Senate seats the likely midterm result

Traders now expect Republicans to finish the midterms with 44 Senate seats, with 45 the only other result they see as realistic. Exactly 45 seats, once the favored outcome, has fallen to unlikely, and traders had not expected that at the start of Wednesday.

The likely reason is the count in Alaska. On Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ showed Democrat Mary Peltola ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 507 votes. A Democratic win there, together with one in the still-uncalled Mississippi race, would leave Republicans with 44 seats rather than 45 under the reported 54-44 Senate balance. Neither race has been decided.

The move was a reversal that came within hours. Early Wednesday, bets on exactly 45 seats were the likely result. They dropped to a toss-up within hours and at one point sank to unlikely. They were unsteady through the morning, bouncing back toward even before sliding again. Bets on exactly 44 seats went the other way, rising from a long shot to likely, and exactly 46 seats remains a long shot.

Mississippi drove the first leg of that shift. WLOX reported that Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes early Wednesday, with the race uncalled. The top vote-getter wins without a runoff, WLOX said.

Alaska is harder to read. Peltola led on first-choice votes, but neither leading candidate had a majority, according to the Decision Desk HQ count. Ranked-choice transfers could still change the winner.

Republicans entered the Nov. 3 election with 53 seats. Democrats won control of the chamber, Ballotpedia reported, flipping seven Republican-held seats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. In Montana, the Associated Press and CBS projected Republican Kurt Alme the winner, a GOP hold that was already accounted for.

The two open races could leave Republicans with 44, 45 or 46 seats, based on the reported balance. Mississippi's remaining votes still have to be counted. Alaska's Division of Elections plans to release ranked-choice tabulations on Nov. 18, if needed, after eligible ballots are counted. An independent's choice of caucus can be settled as late as Jan. 4.