Growing Democratic lead in Mississippi makes 44 Republican Senate seats all but certain

Traders now see Republicans ending the midterm elections with exactly 44 Senate seats as all but certain, after a rise that began Wednesday and continued into Thursday. Finishing with 45 seats, the next bracket up, has faded from unlikely to a long shot.

The likely reason is the vote count in Mississippi. On Wednesday, Democrat Scott Colom's lead over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith grew from dozens of votes to 1,138 votes as more ballots were counted, according to the Mississippi Free Press and ABC News. Together with Democrat Mary Peltola's narrow lead in Alaska, the Mississippi count made a 44-seat Republican total more plausible. Neither race has been called.

The odds moved quickly. Early Wednesday, a 44-seat finish was a long shot. By Wednesday evening it had become likely, and it kept edging higher through Thursday, a climb of about ten points over the past day.

The background is a Democratic win in the Senate overall. Democrats took control in the Nov. 3 election by flipping Republican-held seats including Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, Axios reported. The two uncalled contests in Alaska and Mississippi could determine the size of their majority.

In Alaska, Decision Desk HQ showed Peltola ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 507 votes on Wednesday morning. The Associated Press reported Thursday that her lead was 637 votes with an estimated 74% of the vote counted. In Mississippi, Colom's lead went from 65 votes to 1,138 during Wednesday.

A Democratic win in both states would leave Republicans with 44 seats rather than 45. If either race goes the other way, the final count would change.

Counting continues in both states. In Mississippi, provisional ballots must be resolved by Nov. 10, according to AP, and a challenger may seek a court-ordered recount. Alaska will use ranked-choice tabulation if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, with a tabulation previously scheduled for Nov. 18.