Poliwave calls Iowa's Senate race for Democrat Turek over Republican Hinson

Poliwave, a results tracker that draws on Associated Press data, calls Iowa's Senate race for Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Ashley Hinson. Its displayed count has Turek at 53.1% to Hinson's 44.1%, with 487 of 1,000 precincts reporting.

Fox News' results page also showed Turek ahead, 52.0% to 44.5%, when checked. Fox's count is separate from the race calls the question requires. Poliwave's call goes beyond the early lead it reported Tuesday evening, when Turek led 62.4% to 35.3% with 17.8% of precincts in. The margin has narrowed as more votes came in, but Turek still leads.

The call bears on a very specific outcome: Republicans winning Iowa while losing Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. A Turek victory in Iowa would end it. Bets on that combination hovered between a long shot and unlikely for most of the week, ticking up briefly Friday before easing. They slid Tuesday evening and collapsed overnight as the Iowa count came in. Traders now treat the outcome as certain not to happen, though it has not been formally settled.

The terms are strict. The Associated Press, Fox News and NBC must all call the races. Poliwave's call is separate from theirs. If the three do not agree, official certification decides. Results not determined by March 31, 2027 would also count against a Republican win.

The wider picture points the same way. Across the combinations of states Republicans might win, Republicans winning none of the seven races is the likeliest, with a win in Alaska alone the next most likely, though still a long shot. A Republican win in Maine alone is also a long shot.

The Iowa seat is open because Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. Hinson and Turek won their parties' primaries in June, and the race became a costly battleground. A final New York Times/Siena poll had Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47%. Early returns in Ohio also showed Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead on election night.

Early returns carry a caution, since they are not a final result. A Hinson comeback would keep this outcome possible only if Republicans also lost all six other races.

Iowa votes remain to be counted. The required AP, Fox News and NBC calls, or official certification if they do not agree, will determine the result. A confirmed Turek win in Iowa would rule out this exact outcome, whatever happens in the other six races.