AP calls Kansas Senate race for Democrat Hamilton over Republican Sen. Marshall

The Associated Press called Kansas's U.S. Senate race late Tuesday for Democrat Adam Hamilton, saying he defeated Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Decision Desk HQ, an election-data organization, had already called the race for Hamilton, and Poliwave had listed its own call for him.

The AP call is one of three that formally settle the contest. The race counts as decided when the AP, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. If they do not agree, official certification decides it. Fox's tracker showed no race call in its latest snapshot, and no NBC call has been reported, so those calls or certification remain the next steps.

The count was still not final. Decision Desk HQ's tracker showed Hamilton ahead 54.77% to 42.47% with 77% of the vote reporting. Later it showed him at 51.97% to Marshall's 45.05% with 92% reporting. Early returns on Fox's AP-sourced tracker had shown Hamilton far ahead, 57.76% to 40.18%, with only 12.84% counted. The AP cautions that many counties' first reports include early votes but few or no Election Day in-person votes, so margins can shift as counting continues.

Bets on a Democratic win have settled at certain, though the race has not formally resolved. They stayed in unlikely territory through Oct. 27, then climbed from Oct. 28 through Oct. 30 to roughly a toss-up and held there on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. They rose again on Nov. 2 and Nov. 3, then jumped late Tuesday and into early Wednesday as returns came in.

Marshall was seeking a second term in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, challenged him in a race that tightened over the campaign. Trump and Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Marshall in Kansas.

Polling in the final stretch showed a competitive contest. An Oct. 25 poll had Marshall ahead 46% to 45%. An Emerson poll released Oct. 30 put Hamilton ahead 49% to 45%, and Nate Silver then moved his rating from toss-up to Lean Democratic. A Washington Post-Schar School poll showed Hamilton leading 52% to 43%, though the Post warned that Democrats were more likely than Republicans to take part in its survey.

Counting continues, including in western counties whose polls closed an hour after the rest of the state. Calls from Fox News and NBC, or official certification if the outlets do not agree, are what remain.