AP calls Louisiana's Senate race for Republican Julia Letlow over Democrat Davis

The Associated Press called Louisiana's U.S. Senate race for Republican Rep. Julia Letlow early on Nov. 4, declaring her the winner over Democrat Jamie Davis, a farmer. The call puts Letlow on course to keep the seat in Republican hands.

The call followed an election night in which Letlow led throughout the count. KPEL reported her ahead 55% to 45% with 3,209 of 3,722 precincts reporting, a count that was unofficial and incomplete. With 99% reporting, Fox News's AP-sourced tracker showed Letlow with 745,963 votes, or 50.88%, to Davis's 720,106, or 49.12%. Her lead narrowed as more votes were counted, but it held.

Fox News and NBC have not been verified as matching the AP's call. The race is formally decided once the AP, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. If they do not, the result stands on official certification.

The race followed a turbulent Republican nomination fight. Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy was eliminated in the May 16 primary after finishing third behind Letlow and John Fleming. On June 27, Letlow defeated Fleming in the Republican runoff. Davis won the Democratic runoff.

The final tally was closer than early returns suggested. Letlow was favored heading into the vote, but a Hart Research survey commissioned by Davis's campaign and conducted Oct. 28 to 29 had the two candidates tied at 45%. Campaign-commissioned polls are often released to make a case for a candidate. The returns did not match that result, though the gap between the candidates ended up narrow.

Traders had already come to treat a Democratic win as a long shot during the night, and by early Nov. 4 they regarded a Letlow victory as all but certain. The remaining returns and the other calls are the next milestones. Matching calls from Fox News and NBC, or official certification, will settle the question formally.