Vance still leads Republican 2028 field, but DeSantis bets jump after Florida vote

Traders sharply raised their expectations for Ron DeSantis winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after Florida's election night, though he is still not the favorite. His chances moved from a long shot to unlikely, a jump of roughly ten points.

The likely trigger was Florida's property-tax amendment, which DeSantis backed. Returns on Tuesday night showed it on course to pass, and the governor declared victory, Axios and News4JAX reported. The result gave DeSantis a policy win on a night when Republicans suffered losses nationally. It did not decide whether he will seek or win the nomination, and no source establishes exactly why traders bought.

The move came fast. Bets on DeSantis crept up through October and the first days of November, but he stayed a long shot. Late Tuesday night the price leapt, and it held through Wednesday morning, then edged higher by midday.

Across the field, Vice President JD Vance remains the likeliest nominee, with Sen. Marco Rubio the runner-up. Both are still considered unlikely, so the race looks open. Bets on Vance have slipped over the same stretch, while Rubio has barely moved. Sen. Ted Cruz and Tucker Carlson remain long shots. Bets on DeSantis winning the 2028 presidency itself also rose but remain a long shot.

Democrats gained control of Congress in the election. Axios said the Republican losses cast a shadow over Vance's potential 2028 ambitions. Republican Byron Donalds won the race to succeed DeSantis, who is term-limited.

DeSantis ended his 2024 presidential campaign after a commanding 2022 Florida reelection. Former aides later told Axios they regretted waiting until May 2023 to enter that race. In a September 2025 AtlasIntel Republican primary poll, Vance led with 54.6%, followed by DeSantis at 16.3%.

DeSantis has not announced a campaign. The nomination depends on the 2028 primary process and on official Republican Party sources, with the general election set for Nov. 7, 2028. Any campaign announcements and early primary contests will shape how traders see the field.