Talk of a lower IPO price leaves Anthropic's first-day value expected near $1.5 trillion

Traders still expect Anthropic to finish its first day of trading worth about $1.5 trillion, with a range running from under $1.25 trillion to $2 trillion, even after reports that prospective buyers want a lower price. The single likeliest band is $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion, though it is far from assured.

The question here is whether Anthropic's market capitalization closes below $1.25 trillion on its first trading day. That outcome remains unlikely. Bets on it fell sharply on Saturday, roughly halving from their level a day earlier. They had jumped on Friday, and by Saturday afternoon had given back most of that gain, with much of the drop coming in a single hour.

The likely backdrop is a Bloomberg report on Friday. It said prospective buyers were discussing an IPO valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, down from $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion, after a steep selloff in AI stocks. Formal marketing had not begun and nothing was final, according to the report. Quartz, citing Bloomberg, and CNBC also covered the story. Some buyers reportedly considered a price as low as $1.1 trillion.

That report does not explain Saturday's drop. A lower valuation would normally make a smaller first-day value more plausible, not less. No sourced development explains why bets on this outcome retreated, so the reason is not clear. A valuation under discussion is also not an agreed offer price or a first-day closing value.

The broader backdrop is that Anthropic raised $65 billion in May at a $965 billion post-money valuation. It filed publicly for an IPO on October 26 and updated its filing on November 2. The update reported rapid revenue growth but continued losses. The offer price and the number of shares remain unspecified. On November 5, Reuters reported that potential investors questioned whether the planned roadshow could stay on schedule and were pressing for a lower valuation.

Traders still see a November debut as likely, with the listing most often placed in the second half of the month. IFR had reported a roadshow launch planned for November 9 and pricing the following week, but the investor doubts reported by Reuters cloud that timetable. The next things to watch are the announced offer terms, whether the listing goes ahead, and the official close on the first trading day. Absent a listing by the end of 2027, none of the value ranges would apply.