Anthropic's expected valuation slips to about $1.9 trillion after an AI-stock selloff

Traders now expect Anthropic to reach a valuation of about $1.9 trillion by year-end, down from about $2.1 trillion when this story began. Across the full set of valuation questions, their range runs from under $1.5 trillion to $2.5 trillion. The likeliest single band is now $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, lower than the $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion band a day earlier.

The drop followed a sharp selloff in AI-related stocks on Thursday, as investors worried about a slowdown in the AI boom. Axios described the Nasdaq plummeting toward correction territory. The selloff is a plausible contributor to lower expectations for Anthropic's pending public offering, but no source directly ties it to the move, so the exact reason is not confirmed.

Reaching $1.5 trillion before the end of December has slid from all but certain to likely. That question held near all but certain through late October, dipped briefly on Oct. 30 and recovered. It eased Wednesday, stayed steady into Thursday morning and then fell through the afternoon. Reaching $2 trillion has dropped sharply and is now a toss-up, while $1.75 trillion is likely. A valuation of $2.5 trillion is unlikely, and $3 trillion, $4 trillion and $5 trillion are long shots, as is a fall to $800 billion or lower.

Other bets moved the same way. Traders now see a public offering before 2027 as likely rather than all but certain, and an offering by late November as a toss-up, down from likely. Bets that an offering values Anthropic between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion rose from a long shot to unlikely. Bets that an AI bubble bursts in 2026 also rose from a long shot to unlikely, and bets on one bursting by mid-2027 climbed but remain unlikely.

Anthropic raised $65 billion in May at a reported $965 billion post-money valuation. In October, Reuters reported that some investors were discussing an offering valuation near $1.5 trillion, down from earlier expectations near $2 trillion, after quarterly revenue growth slowed. Anthropic publicly filed to go public on Oct. 26. On Nov. 2 it disclosed nearly $17 billion in third-quarter revenue but continued net losses, the Associated Press reported.

Reuters reported that Anthropic was expected to begin marketing shares the week of Nov. 9. The company has not announced a final offering price or a listing date. How the offering is priced, and whether the AI-stock selloff deepens or fades, will likely shape where expectations settle.