Bets still favor Iotova on the eve of Bulgaria's presidential runoff, but less firmly

On the eve of Bulgaria's presidential runoff, traders still expect acting President Iliana Iotova to beat former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov on Sunday. She is still the favorite, in the range of likely. Gyurov remains unlikely to win, but his chances are far better than they were before the first round.

The odds have swung widely in the past week. Before the first round on Oct. 25, Iotova looked all but certain to win, after polls had shown her with a wide lead. Her odds fell sharply that day, when the results and exit polls showed a much closer race. The Central Election Commission's final count gave Iotova about 34.8% and Gyurov about 32%, with record-low turnout of about 23% and 27 candidates on the ballot.

Bets on Iotova then recovered slowly through Oct. 28 and jumped on Oct. 29. On Friday they fell steeply, and by evening the race briefly looked like a toss-up. Overnight they climbed back to likely and have barely moved since, easing slightly on Saturday. Iotova's position is therefore firmer than at Friday's low, but well below where it stood before the first round.

The campaign has centered on Bulgaria's stance toward Russia and the war in Ukraine. Iotova is backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria, the Socialist Party and VMRO. Radev has framed the runoff as a choice between peace and war. Gyurov has the pro-EU parties Democratic Bulgaria and We Continue the Change. Three former prime ministers and two former presidents have also endorsed him, according to the Sofia Globe.

The nationalist Vazrazhdane party, whose leader Kostadin Kostadinov took about 12.5% in the first round, said it will not give Gyurov its backing. BTA reported that some of its voters are expected to back Iotova.

A legal dispute is also pending. The Supreme Administrative Court is reviewing a complaint from Gyurov's initiative committee about Radev's public call to vote for Iotova. The election commission found no violation by a single vote, 8 to 7.

Voting is on Sunday, Nov. 1, and the commission is expected to count the ballots that evening. Its official results will settle who wins the presidency.