California returns show billionaire wealth tax Proposition 40 well behind

Early election returns show California's proposed one-time tax on billionaires, Proposition 40, trailing by a wide margin. A tally based on the secretary of state's results, reported by California Today, showed 43.4% of voters in favor and 56.6% opposed on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The Los Angeles Times also reported the measure behind.

The Associated Press had not called the race as of Wednesday, and millions of ballots remained uncounted. Counties will keep reporting, and the count could still shift. The secretary of state must certify the results by December 11.

Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of billionaires, with the money going mainly to health care. The secretary of state said on June 17 that the initiative had enough valid signatures to make the ballot. The campaign divided Democrats and drew heavy opposition from wealthy technology executives.

Polling had pointed to a tightening race. The Public Policy Institute of California found support among likely voters slipping from 52% in September to 46% in its October 16-22 survey, while opposition rose to 52%.

Bets on passage had stayed low through late October, moving within a narrow range. They collapsed overnight into Wednesday as the returns came in, and traders now treat the measure's failure as certain, though the result has not been made official.

There is a further complication. The official voter guide warns that a competing measure, Proposition 41 or 42, could keep Proposition 40 from taking effect if it receives more Yes votes, even if Proposition 40 wins a majority. How that would affect the final outcome of this question depends on how the rules are read.

What comes next is the continued county count and the state's certification of results.