Republican Byron Donalds wins Florida's governor race, the AP says

The Associated Press called Florida's governor race for Republican Byron Donalds on Tuesday evening, saying he won the open seat that term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis is leaving. Donalds defeated Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later joined the Democratic Party.

The call is the main development since readers were last told the race was unresolved. It is not yet a final result. The question is settled once the AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, it is settled when Florida certifies its results, scheduled for Nov. 17. Those additional calls or the certification remain to be confirmed.

Bets on a Republican win now treat a Donalds victory as certain, though the contest has not officially resolved. That is a sharp reversal from earlier in the week. Bets on a Republican win began the past week as likely, then eased through late October as polls tightened. They hovered between a toss-up and likely into Monday and swung back and forth on Tuesday, dipping to a toss-up in the afternoon. Late Tuesday they surged within minutes and then hardened into certainty overnight, while bets on Jolly collapsed to almost nothing.

The AP also called Florida's Senate race for Republican Ashley Moody on Tuesday, during the later part of that climb. That statewide Republican win pointed to strength for Donalds's party, but it did not decide the governor's race and does not explain the initial surge.

The race had looked close beforehand. A RedBox Research poll conducted Oct. 30-31 put Donalds ahead 47% to 46%, within its margin of error. Axios reported on Nov. 1 that both parties expected Jolly to gain from early and absentee voting, which Donalds would need to overcome on Election Day. An earlier Decision Desk HQ count, with 88% of the expected vote in, showed Jolly narrowly ahead, 49.70% to 49.07%.

Donalds had President Donald Trump's endorsement. Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994, and DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022, the AP reported.

The next steps are calls from Fox News and NBC and the state's certification. The AP says Florida requires a machine recount if the final margin is 0.5% or less, followed by a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes if the machine-recount margin is 0.25% or less.