Bottoms' lead in early returns leaves traders certain a Democrat wins Georgia governor

Poliwave's results tracker now displays its own call that Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms won Georgia's governor's race over Republican Rick Jackson. The tracker shows Bottoms with 56.2% to Jackson's 43.8%, with about 3.1 million votes counted. It does not say when the call was made.

The call is not the one that settles the question. A winner is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification decides it. Poliwave's call alone does not meet that test.

Traders already treat a Democratic win as certain, though the race has not been formally decided. Bets on a Democratic victory were likely but far from guaranteed through Monday and into Tuesday, and they slipped during the day before polls closed. They then surged as early returns arrived Tuesday evening and have held at a point traders treat as certain since late Tuesday night. Bets on a Republican win collapsed over the same stretch.

Earlier Tuesday night, Poliwave's tracker had Bottoms at 58.9% to Jackson's 41.1% with more than 2.6 million votes counted. Her share has since narrowed as more votes came in. Those figures were partial returns at the time and did not establish a winner.

The result looks sharply different from the pre-election picture. A poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution had the two candidates deadlocked. Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor, won the Democratic primary on May 19. Jackson, a healthcare executive, won the Republican runoff against Burt Jones on June 16. The winner succeeds term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.

Counting and certification remain relevant. The Associated Press has noted that Georgia candidates can request a recount if the margin is no more than 0.5 percentage points. Georgia's county certification deadline is Nov. 9, and the state deadline is Nov. 20. The next step to watch is whether the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.