AP calls Iowa's Senate race for Democrat Josh Turek over Republican Ashley Hinson

The Associated Press called Iowa's Senate race for Democrat Josh Turek late Tuesday night, projecting him the winner over Republican Ashley Hinson. The AP call is one of three that matter for settling the question. The outcome is formally decided when the AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. Failing that, official certification decides it. The Fox News and NBC calls were not independently verified.

The call followed a count that favored Turek throughout the night. Fox News' tracker, which draws on AP data, showed him leading Hinson 51.96% to 44.52% with 66.49% of the vote reporting late Tuesday. Fox had not called the race at that point. Poliwave, an election-results site, separately called the race for Turek earlier in the night, but that call does not count toward the formal result.

Bets had already moved a long way before the call. Through most of October, traders leaned modestly toward Hinson, and the odds barely moved. They began shifting toward Turek on Monday, which made the race a toss-up. On Tuesday a Turek win became likely. Late Tuesday night, bets on him dropped sharply within minutes and then recovered just as fast, taking back the whole loss. No reported news explained that brief swing. Bets then climbed to all but certain shortly before the AP call, and traders now treat a Turek win as certain, though the race has not formally been settled.

The reason for the earlier shift toward Turek was unclear before polls closed. CBS News early national exit polls showing President Donald Trump's approval at 38% later offered possible context, but they do not explain the timing of every move.

The seat is open because Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. Hinson is a U.S. representative, and Turek is a Democratic state representative. Both won their party primaries on June 2. The race drew heavy advertising spending, and the AP reported that Democrats were trying to capitalize on frustration over prices, the Iran war and tariffs. Polling had shown a very close contest. An October Marist poll found Turek at 48% and Hinson at 45% among likely voters, and a final New York Times/Siena poll had Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47%.

What comes next is whether Fox News and NBC also call the race for Turek. If they do, the result is formally settled. If they do not, the outcome will follow official certification of the vote.