Traders certain Likud will finish outside 30 to 34 seats in Israel's election

Traders now treat it as certain that Likud will finish outside the range of 30 to 34 seats in Israel's election. The outcome has not been confirmed, since the count is still under way and no official result exists. The reason for the latest slide in bets is not yet clear, and this story will be updated if one emerges.

The move follows a long slide. For most of October, bets on Likud winning 30 to 34 seats sat at the level of a long shot, with small swings that faded within a day. They rose to unlikely on Tuesday evening, after broadcasters' exit polls were released as voting ended. Israel Hayom reported that those polls put Likud at 24 to 30 seats. The bets then fell through the night and into Wednesday morning, and by midday they had sunk to near zero.

By that point the partial count had pointed to a lower figure. The Petek, a tracker that uses figures from Israel's Central Elections Committee, projected Likud at 32 seats with about a fifth of ballots counted. Its projection later fell to 29 seats, with more than a third counted. These projections are provisional and could change as more votes are tallied, and they are not the cause of the move.

Before the vote, polling left Likud's total uncertain. The Petek's average of the ten latest polls, as of Oct. 23, put the party at 23 seats, though individual polls varied widely. The exit polls were above that average. Traders have since moved toward a different range: a Likud result of 25 to 29 seats is now all but certain in their view, and a result of 20 to 24 seats has also been ruled out.

The election has also changed expectations about the contest for first place. Traders likewise treat it as certain that Eizenkot's Yashar party will not win the most seats, which suggests Likud is expected to finish at or near the top of the count.

The count is not finished. Double-envelope ballots, which include soldiers' and other special ballots, are due to be counted Thursday, and the Central Elections Committee has set Nov. 4 as the deadline to publish official results. Those ballots could still shift Likud's total by a seat or more. After the results are published, President Isaac Herzog is to consult party leaders and assign a lawmaker to try to form a government, and he has seven days to do so under the presidency's description of the process.