Near-complete Israeli count puts Likud first, an estimated 27 seats to Yashar's 21

Likud is leading Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar in Israel's election, with the count nearly done. A tracker built on Central Elections Committee figures reported that 99.5% of ballots were counted and estimated Likud at 27 seats to Yashar's 21. The tracker cautions that its seat allocation is provisional and may differ from the committee's official one.

Vote totals point the same way. JNS reported that committee figures on Wednesday afternoon gave Likud 1,121,743 votes, or 20.58%, and Yashar 877,516, or 16.10%. An earlier committee count, with about 70.7% counted, had Likud at 27 seats and Yashar at 20.

Separately, the elections committee asked for a Shin Bet investigation into suspected foreign interference, AP reported. The committee's acting director general said there was no basis for claims of systematic election violations.

Traders now treat Likud finishing first as certain, though the result has not been made official. Likud had been unlikely to finish first for most of October, and polls before the vote generally favored Yashar. A Maariv poll reported Oct. 16 gave Yashar 21 seats and Likud 18. That changed Tuesday evening, when exit polls came out as voting closed. Expectations flipped within minutes, moving Likud from unlikely to likely, and it became all but certain overnight. Yashar fell to a long shot. By Wednesday the outcome was treated as settled.

The question covers only which party wins the most Knesset seats, not who governs. AP reported that Netanyahu's bloc was projected at 53 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority. Coalition talks will decide who forms the next government, and that is still unresolved.

AP reported that final results were expected Thursday evening and must be certified by Nov. 4. The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in Nov. 10. If the margin in the official results were ambiguous, the committee's published figures would decide the outcome.