Bets on Netanyahu leaving office by June fall back to unlikely

Expectations that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will leave office by the end of June fell sharply on Friday. Traders now see his departure in that window as unlikely. Early in the day they rated it a toss-up.

The reason for the drop is not yet clear. No development has been identified as the cause. Traders' favored outcome is now that Netanyahu is still in office after June.

The move came in two stages. Bets held steady through the morning and midday, then fell in the afternoon, within a couple of hours. A separate question on whether Netanyahu leaves by the end of 2026 barely moved and also remains unlikely.

The drop follows Israel's Oct. 27 election, which left Netanyahu's Likud the largest party but gave neither major bloc a majority. The completed count published Friday put Likud at 27 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar at 21. Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, the main opposition bloc 48 and Arab-led parties 19. A majority needs 61 seats. The count still faces verification before it is formally submitted.

Netanyahu remains prime minister while parties try to form a government. Opposition figure Avigdor Liberman has ruled out joining a government with either Netanyahu or the Arab-led parties, which complicates any route to replacing him. Liberman repeated that position Friday, but it was already public before the afternoon decline, so it cannot be tied to the move.

The next steps are set. The election committee is due to submit verified results to President Isaac Herzog on Nov. 4. Herzog will then choose a candidate to try to form a government. The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on Nov. 10.

If coalition efforts fail, another election could follow. Netanyahu's government would stay on in a caretaker role in the meantime. Either outcome leaves open how long he remains in office, and how traders judge that will likely depend on whether a workable coalition emerges. Until the reason for Friday's drop becomes clear, the shift is best read as a change in mood after a close and inconclusive election rather than a response to any single event.