Traders certain Together takes third place in Israel's election, ahead of the Joint List

Traders now treat Naftali Bennett's Together finishing third in seats in Israel's election as certain, leaving the Joint List with no realistic path to that place. The Joint List's chances slid again on Thursday. No reported news explains that last drop, and the result is not officially confirmed.

The Joint List's odds have swung widely since Wednesday. They began that day as unlikely and drifted lower through the morning as Together looked secure. In the late afternoon they jumped to within reach of third place after the Central Elections Committee finished counting regular votes. Together and the Joint List were tied at 12 seats, Arutz Sheva reported. Earlier counts had put Together ahead.

The jump did not last. Expectations for the Joint List faded through Wednesday evening and overnight, then fell sharply in the early hours of Thursday. A brief bounce later that morning disappeared, and by midday the party's chances had all but vanished. Over the same stretch, Together went from a favorite to a near-certain third-place finisher.

The tie mattered because of how the ranking works. Parties are ordered by seats won. If two are level, the one with more total valid votes ranks higher, and alphabetical order of the listed names decides only if that is also equal. Double-envelope ballots, cast by soldiers, diplomats and others who vote outside their home districts, were still outstanding when the regular count ended. They could shift seats between parties.

Arutz Sheva's earlier reports show how the count moved. At 66% of the vote counted, the coalition bloc had dropped and Ra'am had gained two seats. At 77.6%, Eisenkot and Bennett had gained seats at the expense of the Joint List and Liberman. With all regular votes counted, the outlet said, neither bloc had won outright.

That reporting explains Wednesday's swing, not the latest slide in the Joint List's odds. Why traders became so sure on Thursday is not yet clear.

The next thing to watch is the tally of the remaining ballots and the committee's final seat allocation, which would settle third place officially. The reports gave no timetable for that count.