Democrat Holscher leads Kansas governor count by 5,557 votes, but the race is uncalled

Democrat Cindy Holscher leads Republican Ty Masterson by 5,557 votes in the unofficial count for Kansas governor, with all 4,168 precincts reporting, according to the Kansas Secretary of State. Holscher has 546,587 votes to Masterson's 541,030. Fox News' AP-sourced results page shows the same totals, with 97.89% of the estimated vote in. Traders now treat a Democratic win as certain, though the question has not resolved.

The narrow lead is the likely reason for that confidence, the state count and KWCH's reporting suggest, although more ballots remain to be counted and the race has not been called. The question is settled once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call it for the same candidate. If they do not agree, official certification decides. Poliwave has called the race for Holscher, but that does not meet the standard. Axios reported that the AP considered the race too close to call early Wednesday.

The odds moved quickly. On Tuesday evening, a Democratic win was unlikely. Within a couple of hours, as early returns put Holscher well ahead, traders swung to expecting one. Overnight the odds briefly dipped as her lead narrowed, then recovered fully. By Wednesday morning a Democratic win looked close to certain, and by the afternoon traders treated it as settled.

Holscher's lead has shrunk as votes were counted. An earlier Decision Desk HQ tally had her ahead by 7,496 votes, and her share was far larger in the first returns. The AP had warned that counties were expected to release early in-person and mail votes first, so early margins might not hold.

Holscher, a state senator, and Masterson, the state Senate president, are competing to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. Holscher won the Democratic primary on Aug. 4 with 48.76% of the vote, and Masterson won the Republican primary with 43.20%.

The margin could still change. The Kansas News Service reports that mail ballots postmarked by Election Day can be counted if they arrive by Friday, Nov. 6, and that the close result is expected to trigger an audit. Kansas has no automatic recount, but candidates may request one. County canvassers must meet by Nov. 16 to consider provisional ballots. The next things to watch are whether the AP, Fox News and NBC call the race for the same candidate, and whether the remaining ballots change the margin.