Raman's growing lead over Bass has traders certain she will be Los Angeles mayor

Traders now treat Nithya Raman's election as Los Angeles mayor as certain, though no news organization or election official has declared a winner. A Wednesday afternoon ballot update widened Raman's lead over Mayor Karen Bass to 26,124 votes, according to The Ballot Book, a tracker of Los Angeles County results. It shows Raman with 51.7% and Bass with 48.3%. NBC Los Angeles still lists the race as too early to call.

The new count extends a lead that was already large enough to settle the betting. Earlier on Wednesday, NBC's count had Raman ahead by 16,594 votes, up from 3,978 a few hours before that. The county's own results page did not show a readable tally when checked, so the latest figures come from the tracker rather than from the county.

The turn in expectations was abrupt. For most of the past two weeks, Raman's chances sat near a toss-up, edging above it for several days and then slipping to somewhat unlikely after Oct. 28. They stayed there into Tuesday. As the first returns came in that night, with Bass ahead, Raman's chances fell further and Bass was seen as likely to win. Then, within a few hours late Tuesday, the picture reversed. Raman went from unlikely to all but certain, and she held that position through Wednesday before traders treated her win as certain.

Bass and Raman reached the Nov. 3 runoff after finishing first and second in the June primary. The race looked close going in. A Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll released in the final week showed them tied at 40% among likely voters, after an earlier poll had put Raman ahead by 11 points.

Bass led the first election-night returns, and LAist reported that her advantage had narrowed to 2,027 votes shortly after midnight. Raman gained in successive batches and moved ahead early Wednesday. The Los Angeles Times had reported that she was expected to do better among late-arriving ballots.

The count is not final. Ballot counting is expected to continue through the week and possibly longer, and further batches could widen or narrow Raman's lead. LAist reports that Los Angeles County expects daily updates, usually in the late afternoon, through Nov. 13, with more after that. Ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within seven days can still be counted. County certification is scheduled by Nov. 27.