Traders certain NATO and Russian forces will avoid a direct military clash

A drone attack off Bulgaria sank the commercial vessel Contship Jet on Wednesday, the Associated Press reported, and its crew was rescued. The reporting did not establish that Russia was responsible, and the incident was not described as NATO-country and Russian military forces using force against each other.

The sinking did not shift expectations. Traders still treat a direct military clash between NATO-country and Russian forces as certain not to happen, although the question has not formally resolved. Bets on a clash, already a long shot, slid further on Wednesday and ended the day close to zero. The reason for that slide is not clear, and no news has been identified as its cause. The ship attack is a separate development, not an explanation for the move.

The odds have been volatile this month. They rose on Saturday, October 17, around the time Romania's F-16s shot down two drones over Romanian territorial waters, according to Romania's defense ministry and earlier reports. They faded within days. Bets then surged on October 22 and briefly reached a toss-up the next day before collapsing, again for no clear reason. They stayed near the floor through the weekend and drifted lower on Monday and Tuesday.

Incidents like the Bulgarian ship attack, and the earlier one in which drones hit and sank a cargo vessel near Romania, have not been enough on their own to produce a lasting rise. Drone incursions, ship attacks and airspace violations near NATO territory do not amount to the direct use of force between the two sides that the question requires.

Longer deadlines show somewhat more doubt. Traders see a clash by mid-November or by the end of November as a long shot, and a clash by the end of December as unlikely. Their central expectation is that no direct clash happens by the end of the year.

Diplomacy is the main thing to watch. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday that the next three-way talks could be held in Abu Dhabi around November 10, according to The Kyiv Independent. No firm date has been set, and Washington has not confirmed one. Continued diplomacy or a ceasefire could ease concerns about escalation. A direct exchange of fire between NATO-country and Russian forces would push expectations the other way, but no such event has been reported.