Democrat Aaron Ford leads Gov. Lombardo in Nevada's vote count, Poliwave reports

Democrat Aaron Ford holds a wide lead over Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo in Nevada's governor race, according to a count displayed by Poliwave. The page showed Ford with 393,643 votes to Lombardo's 339,728, or 51.5% to 44.5%, as of early Nov. 4. Poliwave attributes the figures to the Nevada secretary of state and says no winner has been called.

The figures are not complete or official. A separate state-sourced results display still showed zeros when it was accessed, so the Poliwave tally could not be checked against it. A lead in an unofficial count does not by itself decide the race.

Traders already treat a Democratic win as certain, though the race has not been formally decided. Bets on a Democrat taking the office were within reach of likely in the third week of October, then jumped on Oct. 27 and held near the top of the likely range through the weekend. They slipped on Nov. 2, rose steadily through Nov. 3 and surged in the early hours of Nov. 4, moving from likely to all but certain and then to certain. Bets on a Republican win fell in step, ending at nothing.

The likely reason for that late climb was not a Nevada result. The Associated Press reported on Nov. 3 that Democrat Gina Hinojosa had defeated Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas, a favorable national sign for Democrats as Nevada's votes were being counted. The Poliwave figures appeared after the odds had settled, and nothing in the available reporting shows they caused the move.

The race pits Ford, the state's attorney general, against Lombardo, who narrowly won the governorship in 2022. Danielle Ford ran without party affiliation. Polling before the vote pointed to a close contest. An Emerson College/KLAS poll conducted Sept. 5-8 found Ford ahead 44% to 42%, with 11% undecided. A Democratic-backed Hart Research poll released Oct. 27 showed Ford leading 49% to 45%. It was conducted Oct. 20-25 among 950 likely voters.

Nevada's continuing count and the race calls are the next milestones. The question is settled when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, it is settled at official certification of the result.