Traders certain Democrat Barringer will unseat Rep. Knott in North Carolina's 13th

Traders now treat a win by Democrat Paul Barringer over Republican Rep. Brad Knott in North Carolina's 13th Congressional District as certain, though the race has not been formally decided. Expectations for a Democratic win held firm through the early hours of Wednesday after a volatile Tuesday.

The likely reason is the election-night count. At 9:02 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, Poliwave's state-sourced tracker showed Barringer leading Knott 53.7% to 45.1% with 205,177 votes counted. Poliwave said that figure came from a partial count, which does not establish a winner, and no race call has been reported. Libertarian Steven Swinton was also on the ballot.

The path to this point was jagged. Through Monday, a Democratic win looked unlikely. Expectations began to turn on Tuesday afternoon, then jumped that evening until a Barringer win looked likely. Late Tuesday, bets briefly fell back to a toss-up, erasing the gain within hours. They then recovered, and early Wednesday they climbed to certain and stayed there. No sourced report has explained the brief dip.

The result would be a sharp reversal of what was expected going in. Knott won the seat in 2024 by 17.3 percentage points, and the Cook Political Report rated the 2026 contest likely Republican before the election. A Barringer victory would require overturning that advantage.

A Democratic win here counts as the outcome whichever way the race is called, as long as Barringer is the winner. The question follows the party of the candidate who takes the seat, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide.

What comes next is the rest of the count. Further returns and credible race calls will determine whether Barringer's lead holds and whether Knott keeps the seat. Until then, the traders' certainty reflects expectation, not a declared result.