U.S. plan for Abu Dhabi talks makes a Russia-Ukraine meeting this year all but certain

A senior U.S. official told Reuters on Monday that the United States will bring Russian and Ukrainian delegations together in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11 to discuss ending the war. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent Washington. Witkoff also said the U.S. will mediate the talks, according to Axios and TASS. Traders now see an in-person Russia-Ukraine meeting before the end of 2026 as all but certain, up from likely.

The announcement confirms a round of talks that the Kremlin had already said, in late October, would take place in the first half of November, Anadolu Agency reported. Until Monday, no date or venue had been settled for the meeting.

The odds have swung widely over the past two weeks. In mid-October, a meeting was well short of likely after an energy-infrastructure truce announced by Donald Trump unraveled amid renewed strikes and public friction between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Expectations climbed sharply on Oct. 20 and 21, after Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Russia was ready in principle to resume three-way talks around Nov. 10 following Vladimir Putin's meeting with Witkoff. They held in the likely range through the end of October, then slipped on Sunday before surging on Monday as the U.S. announcement emerged.

A companion question on whether the sides meet by the end of November also rose sharply and remains likely, a sign traders expect the Abu Dhabi round to go ahead as scheduled.

Traders do not expect the talks to produce a breakthrough. A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement before year-end is still seen as unlikely, though slightly less so than a few weeks ago.

The outcome here requires only that authorized representatives of both governments meet in person to negotiate a ceasefire, a peace agreement or another substantive de-escalation. Either government must acknowledge the meeting, or credible media must report it. Mediated meetings count. Humanitarian-only contacts, remote meetings and unacknowledged encounters do not.

What comes next is the meeting itself. Ushakov had earlier tied the timing of the next round to developments in the Middle East, and earlier plans for talks have slipped. A postponement, a cancellation, or a session limited to humanitarian issues would not meet the test and would likely push expectations back. Representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. also held talks in Abu Dhabi in February.