Zelenskyy and Putin speaking by year-end still looks unlikely, bets suggest

Traders still consider it unlikely that Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin will speak before the end of the year, though the chance rose sharply on Monday. Expectations moved from a long shot to unlikely, a jump of roughly a tenth of the odds scale over a few hours.

The reason for the move is not clear. No credible report has been found of a new event close enough to Monday's jump to explain it. Reports from Sunday are earlier context, not a verified trigger.

The odds had crept up through October and held steady through the weekend. They slipped slightly in the early hours of Monday, then climbed quickly during the morning on heavy trading.

The question counts any interaction between the two leaders, in person or by phone or video call, before the year ends. A meeting of negotiators does not count.

Diplomacy has picked up this month, but the announcements have concerned talks among negotiators. On Oct. 21, Putin agreed in principle to resume U.S.-mediated three-way talks with Ukraine and the United States, according to the Associated Press. On Oct. 23, Zelenskyy said the sides planned a technical-level meeting in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November, and he said he hoped a meeting of leaders would follow, Reuters reported.

On Sunday, Zelenskyy again called for a meeting involving the three countries and said territorial issues should be discussed by leaders. The Kyiv Independent reported that a Kremlin aide said Moscow was ready to resume three-way talks after Nov. 4.

Those steps give the renewed effort a possible next stage, but no contact between Zelenskyy and Putin has been announced.

The next step is expected to be the meeting of negotiating teams in November. No date has been set for a call or meeting between the two leaders. Confirmation that they will take part in a meeting or speak by phone or video would bear directly on this question. Talks between their teams alone would not.